招商期货 |  招商致远资本 |  招商投资 |  招商证券香港 |  English 官方微博 软件下载 登录web交易 专家在线 财管计划 理财超市 网上招聘 营业网点实时行情

Hong Kong Market Strategy Bi-weekly Vol.17 2017 - Seeking margin of safety and better positioning

作者: Cliff Zhao,Vincent JI
时间: 2017年09月22日
重要性: 一般报告
行业评级:
公司评级:
相关股票代码:
阅读权限:   该文章钻石卡、金卡、银卡客户可阅读全文
摘要: Report title:Hong Kong Market Strategy Bi-weekly Vol.17 2017 - Seeking margin of safety and better positioning
Analyst:Cliff Zhao,Vincent JI
Report type:Strategy
Date:20170922
[Summary]

Seeking margin of safety for short-term defence and mid-term bull
Sentiment was bullish as 2017E earnings recovery has been confirmed by interim results. Moderate gains should be seen in 4Q17 amid bullish estimates. We expect the market to move around 12x 12 month forward P/E as further surge of earnings estimates is not likely in the short term. Short-term sentiment could be affected as the Fed has announced balance sheet normalization to be started in Oct and chance of Dec rate hike increased again. We believe there is still downside to the present 12x P/E as potential rebound of DXY and weakening of RMB could affect liquidity in HK. With short-term systematic risks in a slow bull market, mid-term visibility and margin of safety are particularly important. Margin of safety can be considered on: 1) sustainable earnings growth and low Beta, including IT, auto and consumer discretionary counters; and 2) low-valuation blue chips, including Chinese banks and insurers. Traditional sectors with high margin of safety such as utilities and telecom are not the best choices for now as opportunities in bull markets could be missed due to low volatility. Short-term liquidity risks could concentrate on small/mid-caps as investors mainly adopt Buy-and-Hold strategy and allocate to blue chips with higher earnings visibility.
Domestic economy slowing and overseas policies converging
Aug data missed consensus. 8M17 FAI growth reached 7.8% YoY, 0.5ppt lower than 7M17. Aug industrial added value growth was 6.0%, 0.4ppt lower than July due to environmental production restriction. Economy growth could moderately decrease amid less government effort on maintaining steady growth, accelerated capacity cut and slower property market. M2 growth should slow moderately as structural reforms and deleveraging are still policy priorities. Monetary policies among developed economies should converge as growth momentum of Europe and Japan is picking up. BoE could raise interest rate next month and ECB could also announce changes in its asset purchase programme in Oct. BoJ is cutting its purchase on government bonds under new policy framework. Therefore, the initiation of balance sheet normalization by the Fed could hardly strengthen the Dollar, but its impact on liquidity in emerging markets needs to be further observed.
Real estate steady & strong and HK money flows improving
Based on RSI, telecom, financial and energy sectors weakened last week. Real estate was steady and strong while consumer services and raw materials turned weak from strengths. IT grew strong quickly while consumer goods manufacturing, industrials, utilities and conglomerates have yet to show clear trends. Capital showed net inflows since Sep 1 but diverged in different sectors. Real estate and consumer discretionary had net inflows while IT and energy continued to show much net outflows. As for southbound capital, SH-HK Connect began to have mild net inflow since Sep (vs net outflow in Aug) while SZ-HK Connect remained steady (c.5% of daily buying quota). The percentage of southbound buying on HK stock market turnover also increased.
Investment advice
HK stocks returned to 12x P/E on further earnings estimates upgrades after results. But as further earnings upside is limited in the short-term with saturated valuation, one had better optimize the structure of holdings. It is possible to keep high safety-margin plays and take profit on cyclicals related counters with limited upside. Meanwhile, one needs to start considering the market sentiment on US Fed’s balance sheet rationalization in Sep and adjust positions to prevent the impact from gray rhino of liquidity.

全文: 该研究报告需要相应权限才能阅读,请在此处 
如果您不能打开pdf格式的文件,请您先下载PDF阅读器
  - 钻石卡用户可阅读全文    - 钻石卡、金卡用户可阅读全文    - 钻石卡、金卡、银卡用户可阅读全文